Lifespan Estimator: Individual
About the Model
The Lifespan Estimator Simulation for Individuals predicts the most likely causes of death for an individual based on their personal health risks. It allows the user to investigate the effects of changing health behaviors on their probability of dying of various conditions and their probability of being alive at a chosen future point in time.
Even though these estimates are based on the best current science, they have two important limitations. First, they assume that you are basically healthy, without any chronic diseases that severely impact your health. Second, they are strictly averages, and do not consider bad luck (for example, being hit with a bus). DO NOT USE THIS TOOL IF THESE LIMITATIONS ARE DEALBREAKERS.
What's "beneath the hood?"
At the core is a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that represents the 19 conditions representing the top causes of mortality in the USA and the top 28 risk factors of clinical and statistical significance associated with their onset.
The model works by creating a cohort of virtual individuals with the age, gender and health risks of the user (currently, the hypothetical patient).
During a model run, each month an virtual individual can develop new risk factors and/or new conditions, have existing risk factors or conditions resolve (e.g. through treatment), or die.
We repeat the analyses with a cohort of individuals representing the user’s (currently, hypothetical patient’s) chosen health improvements. Each improvement represents an idealized scenario in which the risk factor is eliminated or adherence to therapy was perfect.
Using the Model
The interface is currently designed around a hypothetical patient. Her health issues are displayed on the left. On the right, choose one or more ways to improve her health.
Understanding the results
Mortality predictor grids are displayed for the initial health risk profile (left) and for the chosen health improvements (right).
The mortality predictor grids represent the probability of being alive and of dying of various mortality-causing conditions twenty years in the future. They are displayed as outcomes per 1,000 persons.
The color green represents the probability of being alive, and the colors red through yellow indicate the probability dying of various conditions. Holding the mouse over the grids pops up a key for that color that corresponds to the legend below the grids. The top five causes of mortality are indicated by shades of red and orange. For a breakdown of causes beyond the top five, hover your cursor over the word, “Breakdown.”
Tailoring for your project
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Publications
In progress - An alternative approach to estimating life-years lost based on simulating an optimally healthy population.
