The selected behavior changes can be modeled two ways.

1) Birth cohort.
The selected behavior changes are applied to a cohort so that each individual lives their entire life with the changes in place.

2) Current US population
The selected behavior changes are applied to the current US population at its current age distribution. Thus the changes take effect at each person’s current age.

The model can analyze and present results for the whole population or focus on one gender.

The proportion alive and causes of mortality will be displayed for this many years into the future.

Evaluate the effect of behavioral changes on US population health.
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1. Improve health by

2. Apply behavior changes to ?

3. Choose segment of population ?

4. Compare mortality at time horizon ?

4. Compare mortality at age ?

Population Health Estimator

The Population Lifespan Estimator determines the impact of improved health behaviors on estimated life expectancy and on causes of death for the US population.

Please select options to the left
to customize.

Population Health Estimator

Life expectancy

If the selected health improvements were made today, the mean life expectancy in the population would be:

Current health : {{ModelCtl.lifeexp1}} years

Improved Health : {{ModelCtl.lifeexp2}} years


{{ModelCtl.filter.horizontalyears}}-year mortality forecast

Age {{ModelCtl.filter.horizontalyears}} mortality forecast

Looking aheadAt age {{ModelCtl.filter.horizontalyears}} years, out of 1,000 people, the number alive and number dead of the most common causes of mortality are indicated below.
(Mouseover figures for color key.)

Current Health
{{result.name}} ({{result.value}} / 1000)
  • {{result.name}} ({{result.value}} / 1000) Breakdown
    • {{r.name}} ({{r.value}} / 1000)
Improved Health
{{result.name}} ({{result.value}} / 1000)
  • {{result.name}} ({{result.value}} / 1000) Breakdown
    • {{r.name}} ({{r.value}} / 1000)

TORCH was created by a team of researchers, physicians and mathematical modelers at the New York University School of Medicine.
TORCH is funded by the National Institute of Health (NIH) R01A1099970, U24AA022007